BP Energy Outlook 2035
2014 edition
This edition of the Outlook raises three big questions: Will the world have sufficient energy to fuel continued economic growth? Will that energy be secure? And will it be sustainable?
Energy Consumtion:
The outlook projects that global energy consumption will rise by 41% by 2035, with 95% of that growth coming from rapidly- growing emerging economies. That growth rate is slower than what we have seen in previous decades, largely as a result of increasing energy efficiency. Based on trends in global technology, investment and policy BP is confident that production will be able to keep pace. New energy forms such as shale gas, tight oil, and renewables will account for a significant share of the growth in global supply. Energy efficiency promises to improve unabatedly, driven by globalization and competition.
Energy Security:
Among today’s energy importers, the United States is on a path to achieve energy self-sufficiency, while import dependence in Europe, China and India will increase. Asia will become the dominant energy importing region. Russia will remain the leading energy exporter, and Africa will become an increasingly important supplier. While it will remain a key energy player, the Middle East is likely to see relatively static exports.
Sustainability:
The outlook projects that global carbon dioxide emissions will rise by 29%, with all of the growth coming from the emerging economies. There are some positive developments: emissions growth will slow as natural gas and renewables gain market share from coal and oil. And emissions are expected to decline in Europe and the US.
Carbon Intensity:
The change in the carbon intensity – the amount of carbon emitted per unit of consumed energy – is a function of changes in the fuel mix. The market does not do for carbon intensity what it does for energy intensity (energy consumed per GDP) because energy is costly, and carbon is not.