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Review of Swiss Electricity Scenarios 2050

Report prepared for the Group Energy Perspectives and the Swiss Competence Center for Energy Research “Supply of Electricity“

The report reviews recent scenario studies of the Swiss electricity system. Input assumptions and results of eight studies are compared. On the input side, potentials and costs of technologies, and the assumed socio-economic environments of the scenarios are evaluated; on the result side, the elecitricity demand, the supply mix and its costs, carbon emissions, and the flexibility of supply are considered. The report also addresses the modelling frameworks of the studies with their assumptions.

Teaser: Review of Swiss Electricity Scenarios 2050

Key Findings:
If the assumptions in the postulated scenarios are considered as feasible, then the resulting pathways of the electricity system are indeed plausible; for example, the low electricity demand in some scenarios is a consequence of assumptions on aggressive efficiency gains in all energy demand sectors, or even due to additionally assumed behavioural changes, which are not analysed in full detail in the studies.

On the supply side, if nuclear power is phased-out, then net import or gas-powered generation is very likely needed at least in the mid-term (around year 2035), that is, before 2050 where - according to some studies and depending on the demand level - renewables could be sufficiently deployed. In most of the scenarios, the electricity prices will maximally double, which is partially due to the higher costs of intermittent renewables, for example solar photovoltaic and wind. Some studies use models with hourly time resolution; those models show that power storage and especially the pumped-storage hydropower plants must be used more intensively in the future because of intermittent supply.

Hence, more advanced, future studies should analyse in more detail the link between electricity generation, storage, and demand. The uncertainty in future market regulations and in energy-policy interventions, as well as uncertainty in future cost and unknown decisions of competitors induce investment risks for suppliers. Therefore, it is of interest to evaluate in the future studies also the profitability for different types of market participants.



Source: PSI Bericht Nr. 14-05 ; December 2014
Authors: Martin Densing, Stefan Hirschberg, Hal Turton

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